Help-Wanted Online Advertising

What is it: Tracks online job ads.

Link to most recent release: HERE

Release time: 10 am on ~1st of each month and covers previous month

Frequency: Monthly

Source: The Conference Board

Revisions: Done annually

Why is it important

It turns out to be a good predictor of the economy's direction. It, however, cannot predict the end of a recession as it takes time for employers to re-gain their confidence in the market before starting to flood the job boards with new ads and in the first instance prefer to re-hire employees.

How is it computed

When the report started getting generated in 1951 it was based on job ads in newspapers, however, since the job ad market has migrated to be predominantly online the report is now scanning the Internet for newly created jobs reports. It scans more than 1 200 job websites and it makes best effort to exclude duplicate listings. All jobs are given the same weight and it does not differentiate between rank of position(CEO or cleaner), duration (temporary/permanent), wage, full-time or part time. Gets computed from middle of one month to middle of next month which is the same period the Bureau of Labor statistics uses for the Employment Report. It counts jobs listings that have appeared for the first time this month.

Highlights

One important trend that has been observed even from the time of newspaper job ads is that once the amount of listings goes up it is followed by about three to six months later with an upturn in hiring. It takes time for people to respond, get interviewed and ultimately hired.

Market Impact

Bonds

No Impact

Stocks

No Impact

Dollar

No Impact

Corporate Layoff and Hiring Announcements

What is it: Counts number of planned job cuts and hiring announced by public companies

Link to most recent release: HERE

Release time: 07:30 am, published the first week after the end of the reference month

Frequency: Monthly

Source: Callenger, Gray & Christmas

Revisions: No revisions

Why is it important

Another piece of the labor market puzzle which gives some insight into the employers' view of where the economy is heading.

How is it computed

CGC culls a variety of sources for announced layoffs and employment plans, including press releases, newspapers, SEC filings and trade papers. Both publicly traded companies as well as private firms are included. New count is started at the beginning of each month until the three days or so before the end of the same month.

Highlights

One reading this reports should be mindful of the fact that executing layoff plans will take longer than a months so there will be no direct corelation between the figures in the CGC report and the unemployment numbers. Also, geographical regions in the report are based mostly on the headquarters of the company and not where the location of where the layoffs/hiring will take place.

"Job cuts by industry" and "Job Cut Reasons" both provide important industry-specific insights. 

Market Impact

Bonds

No Impact

Stocks

No Impact but provides very useful industry specific information

Dollar

No Impact

Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)

What is it: Measures actual layoffs in government and business. Program Eliminated in 2013

Link to most recent release:  BLS 2013 Sequestration Information : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

ADP National Employment Report

What is it: Reports that can serve as a preview of the government's monthly employment release

Link to most recent release: HERE

Release time: 08:15 am, published two days before Employment Situation report

Frequency: Monthly

Source: Automatic Data Processing and Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

Revisions: Each release contains minot revisions in payroll numbers for the prior month

Why is it important

It is based on data from the nation's leading provider of payroll-related services. ADP processes payroll for one out of six employees in the US private sector. This report is not based on unreliable survey data but rather credible payroll data collected from companies around the country. It is widely used to predict the BLS' monthly estimates on private non-farm hiring.

How is it computed

ADP takes 350 000 private non-farm companies(from the pool of 500 000 it processes payroll for) and  strips out sensitive information to preserve client confidentiality and hands the data to Macroeconomic Advisers. Economists at MA focus specifically on the payroll data that includes the 12th of each month(the same week BLS carries out its survey).

Highlights

The report consists of three parts:

1. Summary table that contains the total level of non-farm, private employment for each of the lat six months as well as job numbers for key segments of that workforce. Does not include government hiring which is included in the BLS report. When trying to asses the economy's health one should focus on the private sector as most government agencies are not focused on profit making and hence growing the economy. It shows a 0.95 correlation with the Employment Situation report

2. By Industry

3. Establishment size

4. Region

Market Impact

Bonds

Just like the Employment Situation report it depends where the economy stands in the business cycle. During a recession an uptrend of jobs is going to cause the FED to start thinking about increasing the interest rates which will in effect lower bond prices. In the expansion part of the cycle FED will start thinking about increasing interest rate to battle potential increase in inflation if the labor market shows strength.

Stocks

Generally strong jobs are good for stocks as they indicate recovering or strong labor market which in turn will should trigger higher profits for companies.

Dollar

Generally, when monthly non-farm, private payrolls increase by an average of 150 000 or more, it can lead to a firming of U.S. interest rates and thus make dollar-dominated assets a more attractive investment. 100 000 or less a month suggests fort or weakening economy in which case foreign investors might conclude that interest rates are likely to fall in the future.