Find out what the company does.
The company's annual (10K) report has that information readily available.
Just type '' *Company name* annual report'' in Google
What are the company's revenue streams, also known as areas of operation?
Again, the 10K is probably the best place to find that information.
Look for competitive advantages:
monopolies: market structure with a single seller or producer that assumes a dominant position in an industry or a sector
high barriers of entry: how high are the obstacles a company needs to overcome to enter a specific market? The fashion market usually offers low barriers of entry since arguably everyone with a sewing machine and a few rolls of fabric can enter. The military shipbuilding market, on the other hand, is a much harder market to enter due to the extremely high infrastructure expenditures required as well as legal requirements.
well-established brand: customers of well-known brands are loyal and do not look elsewhere when it comes to spending their hard-earned money
economies of scale: big companies benefit from better margins due to their negotiating power with suppliers or well-developed internal infrastructure
Is the company burning cash or generating it? Given that it is a very reliable predictor of a company's performance, free cash flow is the most crucial metric every value investor focuses on.
Newly incorporated companies usually burn through cash at the promise to grow quickly.
Sometimes well-established companies report negative cash flows. It is important that we find the reason for that.
Ideally, as value inestors, we prefer to allocate our capital to companies that have a proven track record of generating cash. Trusting promises for growth is risky, and most of the time it results in loss of capital.
First, we need to find out who is guiding the ship.
Find the CEO/CFO/CTO from the most recent Annual (10K) report
Look them up online and see if they have a good reputation and are trustworthy.
Find management's track record.
Have they been with the company for a long time?
Look them up on LinkedIn and find their previous positions with other companies. Determine how successfull were those companies.
Do they manage to implement the plans they are saying they will?
This depends on how long they have been with the company.
Find out if they have skin in the game.
Check company stock ownership; look the company's latest Proxy Statement
We want management who have a big chunk of their personal wealth invested in the company in the form of stock or options
Just type '' *Company name* proxy statement'' in Google
Are they buying or selling company shares?
Here is a website that will help you with that: OpenInsider.com
Look into management's capital allocation strategy, normally found in the company's latest Annual (10K) Report
Are they planning to buy back shares, and is that done at a fair price?
Defining a historical "fair price" can be tricky but does not need to be an exact science.
Are they planning to increase or cut the dividend?
Dividends should be the last resort of a company to return capital to its shareholders due to their double-taxation nature. First, company profits get taxed at source. Then, once distributed out to owners of the company stock, they get taxed one more time on shareholder level as dividends are a taxable form of income. This is definitely not a way of maximizing the value of company profits.
Companies frequently cut dividends too late because it's a last-ditch effort to save money and because it sends the negative signals to shareholders, some of whom might be keeping the company in their portfolio solely for the purpose of receiving its dividends.
Free Cash Flow
As previously mentioned, the company's ability to generate Free Cash Flow is one of the most important factors in determining whether we are going to buy its stock. At the end of the day, why would you invest your money in a company that only burns cash and gives nothing in return?
There are a lot of free websites out there that you can use to check the historical data on FCF generated at the end of each year. I use QuickFS due to its simple interface. Its database covers US, UK, EU, Australian and Canadian companies
Simply search for your company of interest. From the drop-down on the right, switch from "Overview" to "Key Ratios" and scroll down to Free Cash Flow under "Supplementary Items"
Growth potential
In order to determine the company's stock price's fair value, we need to know its growth potential. Knowing this will allow us to get a better idea of what future returns we can expect, which is what we will use to calculate our entry price.
This can be and usually is tricky to evaluate. You can go over the historical revenue growth of the company and conservatively extrapolate into the near future, but at the end of the day, it's only going to be a prediction. This is where investing becomes a form of art.
Certainly pay attention to the historical growth of revenue and FCF, but also think about what market changes can impact and ultimately change its growth patterns.
Has the market been favourable for a certain type of companies recently ( for example: geopolitical tensions positively impact stock prices of defence companies, distressed financial markets are good for consumer defensive stocks since people still need to eat, etc ...)
The government's attitude towards a particular sector is starting to change (for example, China had a tech sector crackdown in 2022 that lasted 2 years and completely decimated the price of tech stocks).
Raising inflation will normally cause stock prices to go down since investors will be looking to move their money to more stable investments with higher expected returns.
"Its better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong."
Margins
There are a few margins that we need to consider, and they are all represented as a percentage of the company's revenue for the quarter or for the year. On their own, margins do not really tell us all that much, but when compared to competitor's margins, they paint a picture that describes how well a company is doing. If company A has better profit margins compared to company B, then we can be pretty certain company A is doing something better and will with time pull ahead of company B.
Margins can be easily calculated using figures from the company's last annual report, but some websites freely provide them for anyone to use. Once again, I use QuickFS for this purpose, and margins can be found under the "Key Rations" drop-down of a ticker's page.
Gross margin tells what part of the revenue is left after a company pays for its cost of goods
Operating margin tells us what part of the revenue is left after a company pays for salaries, marketing, administrative expenses, depreciation and amortization
Net margin tells us what percentage of the company's revenue is converted to profit after paying tax and interest on its debt.
Free cash flow margin is the pure cash left in the company's profit after re-adding depreciation/amortization previously removed from the operating profit calculation.
Return on Invested Capital
Also known as ROIC, it is a performance metric that shows the rate of return a company is making on its internal investments. Great management teams will get high double-digit returns on the capital they have invested in their company.
A simple example might help explain ROIC. Company A invests $1000 in a t-shirt printing press. Following the purchase of the press, the company increases its sales by $1000, from which they make an additional $200 of pure profit. This means that on the $1000 initial investment, the company receives $200, which in mathematical terms adds up to 20% ROIC.
Price-to-FCF
Price to free cash flow can, and in my opinion should, be looked at in a similar way as a dividend yield, even though you do not get direct access to the cash a company generates. It basically tells you how overvalued or undervalued a company is.
Simply put, P/FCF tells you how much of the company's cash you are entitled to for each share you own. Great companies trading at low price-to-FCF ratios are very rare and difficult to find. The emphasis here is on GREAT, as we do not want to invest in distressed companies even though they seemingly produced a lot of cash last year or last quarter. Price-to-FCF is important, but just like everything else in investing, it is just one piece of the puzzle.
If Company A's stock costs $10 and each share is "entitled" to $1 of cash (calculated by dividing last year's FCF by the number of total shares outstanding), then you have a price-to-FCF ratio of 10.
The following table is rather simple but gives you a good idea of the company's performance over the past 10 years.
First and foremost, you need to find out who the competition actually is. Sometimes companies list their main competitors on their annual reports. Don't be afraid to use Google to find a company's competition by simply asking it, "*Copany name* competitors" or if the company you are researching has some well-known products, you can also search for "*Product name* alternatives".
Once you have defined the competition, you want to dig into the financial statements of all companies and come up with a table similar to the following:
Firstly, you will need to come up with your own performance metrics to use— revenue, growth, profit margin, FCF margin, price-to-FCF are always a good starting point
Having this table will clearly show you which company is doing better in certain areas and lagging behind in others.
This is where knowledge and experience will play a big role in considering and coming up with ways to kill the business. Yes, this is basically what we are trying to do when identifying the risks related to the company.
There should be a "Risk factors" section in every company's annual report, so it is always a good starting point.
Think about what can impact the company's sales: natural disasters, union strikes, war, new government policies, new competitors, the company's main product becoming out of fashion.
The more risks you come up with, the higher the margin of safety you need to apply in the DFC model below.
Discounted free cash flow model—for most companies
Once you have a decent idea, since it is not exact science, of the growth prospects of a company as well as the risks associated with it, you can start valuing its stock. We prefer to use a discounted free cash flow model. One thing worth mentioning is that DCF does not work well when valuing some types of companies, such as banks, insurance companies, and real estate trusts, to mention a few. Banks, for example, deploy their capital differently, and their cash flow figure is not as useful when it comes to valuing the company. You would much rather want to use the bank's assets from its balance sheet to value its stock.
DCF is used to determine the value of an investment today based on projections of how much money that investment will generate in the future, discounted back to its present value.
One important idea in this particular valuation model is that "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." It essentially implies that holding a dollar in your hand now is always worth more than being without money for an ambiguous period of time with the assurance that you will have $2 in the future. Because we must purchase a company's stock in the present with the expectation that it will increase in value over time and that we will eventually sell it for a higher price, we constantly want to discount the future cash flows of a business. The usual discont rate applied in the DFC model is the 10 year treasury bond rate
There are a lot of online tools that will allow you to do a DFC valuation—AlphaSpread DCF for example. I have built my own Excel spreadsheet, which I intend to share on this website.
P/TBV model ( price to tangible book value) for valuing banks and insurance
Book value = total assets - total liabilities
Tangible book value = total assets - intangible assets - total assets
intangible assets such as licenses, trademarks, and brands
Ideally, you want the price you are paying for the company to be less than 1
Margin of safety
You know how elevators normally have a maximum capacity of a number of people, right? Well, you might be surprised to find out that the average lift can pack eleven (yes, 11x) more people than what says on the safety placard and possibly survive the ride. Well, that is because stakes are so high that engineers want to make the elevator cables stronger than what is necessary to carry X amount of people. In the real world, we call this margin of safety or room for error. Similarly, investors want to incorporate a margin of safety when valuing a company; simply allow for room for error when predicting its growth or even the economic environment in which it operates.
In investing, the margin of safety is the percent difference between the intrinsic value of a stock (found by using one of the models above) and its current price. It should be based on how accurate you think your assumptions are when finding the intrinsic value of the stock.
Say company A currently costs $8. You have determined that its fair value is $10. In this scenario, the MoS is 20%.
Buy Price
We are at the final stretch of our research and land on the most important square of the chess board... our buy price.
All the hard work has already been done, and all we need to do is multiply your fair value price of the stock by your MoS, and this will give you the entry price.
Sell Price
This is where things get a bit interesting. Once you buy stock, you need to continually monitor the company's performance. At the time of purchase, your exit price is the company's intrinsic value price; however, this is not set in stone and depends on how well your decisions are coming true.
Ideally, once you buy a company, you want to re-evaluate its price once or twice per year or even every time major company news is released.
Last but certainly not least, you need to think about what events can trigger a spike or a crash in the company stock price. Once you are aware of potential catalysts, you will be prepared to act accordingly (sell/buy) when they occur.
Economic environment news, FED rate cuts, settled lawsuits, contract won, strike over,